Plan 999 from Outer Space

On it goes.

Dave Wiegel or someone made a good point yesterday: that after a period where the objective of the media is to prop up the notion that there’s a race, eventually a point is reached where impatience sets in with candidates who hang around for no discernible reason. Blatantly no reason, that is—you could reasonably argue that no one except Romney had any business running in the first place.

That point seems to have arrived. From Sullivan starting a series of Gingrich-related posts entitled “Get. Out. Now.” to a couple of pieces I’ve seen that express more puzzlement than usual as to what exactly Ron Paul’s after, impatience is creeping in. A part of that—with me, I know, and I imagine with others too—is simple exhaustion from months of false Romney-implosion alarms. Anyway, here’s my own assessment of the various reasons why the other three won’t quit. I realize some of this is obvious.

1) A belief that you can still win. Santorum, probably—I get the feeling he’s holding out some measure of hope that if he can get to the convention with Romney short of the required delegates, there’s still a small opening for him. Gingrich, I think (no matter that he says otherwise), has finally moved past denial, and obviously Paul (no matter that he jokingly says otherwise) always knew he had no chance.

2) Angling for 2016 (or, please no, 2020). Santorum, yes; Paul, no; Gingrich only if he’s as crazy as everyone thinks he is. Romney will be one more next-in-line Republican nominee, so that pattern is a big incentive for Santorum to play for second place. Truthfully, though, I don’t think 2016 (much less 2020) will be a next-in-line year. I cannot see Santorum as anything but a bad echo once Rubio and Christie and the rest finally announce.

3) A desire to shape party direction. Paul, definitely, Santorum almost as definitely, Gingrich…is out there in the astral plane, so who knows.

4) Angling for a job if Romney wins. I don’t think any of them are in it for a job. And I think Romney, if he were to win, would be smart enough to pretend to not even remember who these people are the day after he’s inaugurated.

5) Hoping to cash in by other means. Gingrich, of course; whatever it was that he was doing for the past decade, he’ll go back to doing it for twice as much money and armed with ten times as much proof of his world-historical importance. I don’t think Santorum or Paul has hit the lecture and book-tour circuit yet, although that’s probably the last stop for every losing politician eventually.

6) Trying to do whatever you can to muck things up for Romney. I thought (and was hoping) that Newt was going to be a one-man Pretty Hate-Mitt Machine after Florida, but that never really panned out. He still gets his digs in, but being such a slimy character himself, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s secretly Romney’s biggest fan by now. Santorum, though, does seem to be developing a genuine antipathy for Mitt, so maybe that’s part of his motivation, even though he’ll of course pretend otherwise when the time comes. Paul spends a lot of time chuckling like an insane man, so it’s hard to tell—he doesn’t seem to have any use for anyone, although supposedly he’s part of a secret alliance with Romney.

7) Sundry other reasons. Things like Paul clearing a path for his son Randolph, or Gingrich knowing he’ll never again be so in-demand for the Sunday morning shows. Fred Thompson went from losing in 2008 to tremendous success as a spokesperson for reverse mortgages, so you never know what kind of doors will be opened up once you’ve run for your party’s nomination.

Okay—now that all of that’s settled, the next thing to do is to try to figure out why I haven’t bailed on this four-ring circus. That one requires a little more thought.